Atlanta Fed Updates US GDP Forecast to 3.2%

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on January 3, up from 2.8 percent on December 22. The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 7.9 percent to 8.9 percent after the ISM report and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.



The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for December—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.44 to 1.50 after the ISM report. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.46 percentage points to -0.60 percentage points after the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators release on December 28.

via Atlanta Fed

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza