US Futures Steady in Quiet Trade

Another Quiet Holiday Session Lined Up

US equity markets are poised to open a little higher on Thursday after making marginal gains a day earlier in light trade.

It’s likely to be another relatively quiet day, as is often the case during the holiday period, and a lack of economic events on the calendar won’t help matters. There is a few pieces of data scheduled for release, although its mostly low and medium tier data, including jobless claims, Chicago PMI and trade balance figures. We’ll also get crude inventories data, as oil continues to trade near its highs with WTI pushing $60.

Daily Brent and WTI Crude Charts

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

USD Under Pressure Again on Lower US Yields

The US dollar is trading lower for a second day on Thursday, still struggling after yields on Treasuries slipped on Wednesday. The flattening of the yield curve has triggered concerns that investors are possibly pricing in a slowing of the economy or even a recession and while this has historically happened on such expectations, I’m not convinced this is the case this time.

EUR/USD – Euro Pushes Towards 1.20, Markets Eye German CPI

Given the current environment, it’s possible that this is more a reflection of longer term interest rates and the low inflation environment than the economic prospects. Still, if yields on long term US debt don’t rise or even fall as the Fed raises interest rates, it could fuel fears of an impending recession.

Bitcoin Tumbles as Tough Holiday Period Continues

Bitcoin is coming under selling pressure once again, with efforts by South Korean authorities to rein in speculation being blamed for the drop of around 10%. While this is likely a contributing factor, I wonder if given the pre-holiday drop, whether speculators have become more sensitive to negative news.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

We saw plenty of this in reverse on the way up, with positive news triggering significant rises and negative news being brushed aside. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see prices heading back below $10,000 before they find their feet again.

Last Licks for the Dollar Bears

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.