USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Continues Christmas Rally

The Canadian dollar continues to improve, and has posted considerable gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2644, down 0.33% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events this week. In the US, there are two key indicators on Wednesday. The markets are expecting a strong release from CB Consumer Confidence, with an estimate of 128.2 points. Pending Home Sales is forecast to decline by 0.4%.

USD/CAD is down 1.9% since December 20, as the Canadian dollar continues to rally. The currency shrugged off a weak Canadian GDP report on Friday, which came in at 0.0%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. There is plenty of slack in the Canadian economy, although red-hot growth south of the border has helped, as 75% of Canadian exports are sent to the U.S. The GDP release was a disappointment, but key consumer indicators beat their estimates last week. Retail Sales sparkled with a gain of 0.8% in October, well above the forecast of 0.4%. This was the indicator’s highest gain since April. As well, CPI improved to 0.3%, a five-month high. This edged above the estimate of 0.2%.

The US economy received an excellent report card late last week, as Final GDP posted a strong gain of 3.2%, just shy of the Preliminary GDP reading of 3.3%. With the US economy posting growth above 3% for another quarter, the Federal Reserve remains on track for another rate hike in January. The CME Group has pegged the odds of a January hike at 100%, and if the economy continues its current pace, the Fed could raise rates up to four times in 2018. Inflation remains a sore point, as the Fed target of 2.0% remains well out of reach. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other FOMC members have said they expect that the strong labor market will lead to higher inflation, but the Fed has demonstrated that it is willing to press ahead with rate hikes despite low inflation.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Wednesday (December 27)

• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 128.2
• 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate -0.4%

Thursday (December 28)

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 241K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, December 27, 2017

USD/CAD, December 27 at 7:50 EDT

Open: 1.2687 High: 1.2696 Low: 1.2628 Close: 1.2644

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and posted losses in European trade

• 1.2630 is providing weak support
• 1.2757 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.2630 to 1.2757

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2630, 1.2494 and 1.2351
• Above: 1.2757, 1.2860, 1.3015 and 1.3161

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Wednesday session, USD/CAD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (57%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.