USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar in Holding Pattern Ahead of CPI, Retail Sales

The Canadian dollar has shown little movement this week. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2831, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases CPI and Core Retail Sales. In the US, there are three key events – Final GDP, the Philly Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims. On Friday, Canada releases GDP, while the US will release Core Durable Goods, New Home Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Traders should be prepared for some movement from USD/CAD during Thursday’s North American session, with a host of key indicators on both sides of the border. Canada will release consumer inflation and spending data, while the US publishes Final GDP. The markets are predicting another banner quarter, as the estimate stands at 3.3%, which would be unchanged from the Preliminary GDP release. US economic growth has looked sharp in 2017, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times this year, most recently in December. Another rate increase is widely expected in January, and a combination of strong US expansion and an accelerated pace of rate hikes could boost the US dollar.

President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers are celebrating, after scoring a major legislative victory. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted for to pass Trump’s tax reform bill, after it narrowly passed in the Senate, by a vote of 51-48. Trump is expected to sign the bill into law next week. The tax legislation marks the first major overhaul of the US tax code in 30 years, and reduces corporate taxes from 35% to 21%. After failing to overturn Obamacare, the Republicans finally scored a big win, and will now have to sell the tax plan to a skeptical public, with congressional elections slated for November 2018.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Thursday (December 21)

• 8:30 Canadian CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 Canadian Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
• 8:30 Canadian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 3.3%
• 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.5
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 232K
• 8:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.1%
• 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%
• 10:00 US Consumer Confidence. Estimate 0 points
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Leading Index. Estimate 0.4%
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -160B

Friday (December 22)

• 8:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 2.1%
• 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%
• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 654K
• 10:00  UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 97.1

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Thursday, December 21, 2017

USD/CAD, December 21 at 8:10 EDT

Open: 1.2832 High: 1.2838 Low: 1.2827 Close: 1.2831

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD is showing little movement in the Asian and European sessions

• 1.2757 is providing support
• 1.2860 remains a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2860

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2757, 1.2630 and 1.2494
• Above: 1.2860, 1.3015, 1.3161 and 1.3260

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing movement towards long positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (51%), indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.