Goldman Sachs Predicts Calm 2018

Goldman Sachs predicts the calm markets will continue next year and found the stocks that thrive in a low-volatility environment.

The firm recommends a strategy based on a ratio from a Nobel Prize–winning economist.

“Low volatility across asset classes has been a defining characteristic of 2017. For equities, realized volatility ranks in the 1st percentile since 1950. Implied volatility suggests this regime will persist in 2018. Our High Sharpe Ratio basket outperforms min vol strategies and the S&P 500 during low volatility environments,” Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, wrote in a note to clients Friday. “Our rebalanced basket offers 3x the expected return of the median S&P 500 stock with similar implied 6-month volatility.”

The Sharpe ratio was developed by economist William Sharpe, a Nobel laureate, in the 1960s. It measures the average performance of a security in excess of a risk-free return, adjusted for price volatility.

Kostin said the firm’s portfolio based on the ratio has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2 percentage points year to date. The basket includes the 50 S&P 500 stocks with the “highest prospective Sharpe ratios” using Wall Street consensus forecasts and the volatility implied by stock option prices.

The strategy has beaten the market by 7 percentage points per year since 1999, according to Kostin. His year-end 2018 target for the S&P 500 is 2,850, representing 7 percent upside to Friday’s close.

via CNBC

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.