EUR/USD – Euro Steady as German Inflation Matches Forecast

The euro is showing little movement in the Wednesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1750, up 0.07% on the day. In economic news, German Final CPI improved to 0.3%, matching the estimate. This marked a 4-month high. In the eurozone, Employment Change remained unchanged at 0.4%, matching the forecast. Industrial Production rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, above the forecast of 0.0%. In the US, CPI is expected to improve to 0.4%. The Federal Reserve meets for its monthly policy meeting, and is widely expected to raise rates to a range between 1.25% to 1.50%. Thursday will be busy. Germany and the eurozone release manufacturing PMIs, and the ECB will make a rate announcement. The US will release retail sales reports as well as unemployment claims.

All eyes are on Janet Yellen & Co., as the Federal Reserve meets later on Wednesday. The CME Group has priced in a quarter-point rate hike at 87%, so it would be a huge surprise if the Fed doesn’t press the rate trigger.Even though this move has been priced in, rate hikes tend to trigger a surge of confidence among investors, and also makes the US dollar more attractive against its rivals. Traders should therefore be prepared for the US dollar to move higher after the rate announcement. Today’s move could be the start of a series of incremental hikes, as the odds of a January increase stand at 86%. The Fed has hinted that it could raise rates up to three times in 2018, but the pace of increases will depend to a great extent on the strength of the economy and inflation levels. The US labor market remains at full capacity and various sectors in the economy are reporting a lack of workers. Still, this has not translated into stronger wage growth, despite predictions from Janet Yellen and other Fed policymakers that a lack of workers is bound to push up wages.

Investors remain confident about the German and eurozone economies, but the optimism was more measured in December. The well-respected ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator, a confidence barometer of institutional investors, slowed in December in Germany and the eurozone. Economic conditions are good, but investors have to keep an eye on political developments as well, and there are some worrisome developments. Germany still remains without a government, and uncertainty over Brexit continues to hover over the European Union. The euro reacted to the soft ZEW reports with slight losses on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (December 13)

  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%
  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.5%
  • 4:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.5%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Employment Change. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -3.6M
  • Tentative – President Trump Speaks
  • 14:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <1.50%
  • 14:00 US FOMC Press Conference

Thursday (December 14)

  • 3:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 62.1
  • 4:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.8
  • 7:45 Eurozone Minimum Bid Rate. Estimate 0.00%
  • 8:30 ECB Press Conference
  • 8:30 US Core Retail  Sales. Estimate 0.6%
  • 8:30 US Retail  Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 237K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, December 13, 2017

EUR/USD for December 12 at 5:55 EDT

Open: 1.1741 High: 1.1763 Low: 1.1735 Close: 1.1750

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1574 1.1657 1.1777 1.1876 1.1961

EUR/USD posted small gains in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged lower but has recovered

  • 1.1657 is providing support
  • 1.1777 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1657, 1.1574 and 1.1434
  • Above: 1.1777, 1.1876, 1.1961 and 1.2092
  • Current range: 1.1657 to 1.1777

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD is unchanged this week. Currently, short positions have a majority (54%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving downwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.