From Tulip Mania to Bitcoin Mania what history tells us about bubbles

 By Daniel Shane  CNN Hong Kong   @CNNMoneyInvest

The digital currency’s massive surge this year — it’s up more than 1,400% — has all the hallmarks of a huge speculative bubble, according to people such as Warren Buffett.

And if it bursts, the results are likely to be spectacular.

“In terms of how it ends, bubble history suggests it will be with a bang, rather than a whimper,” said Sharon Zoller, an economist at ANZ. “I can’t think of any reason why this time would be different.”

To better understand what may lie ahead, here’s the lowdown on four famous financial bubbles in history:

Tulip mania

In the early 17th century, speculation helped drive the value of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands to previously unheard of prices. Newly imported from Turkey, tulips were a big novelty at the time.

Hard data from those days is scarce, so it’s difficult to gauge exactly how much prices soared. But people were putting up their homes as collateral, according to the Rijksmuseum — the Museum of the Netherlands — in Amsterdam.

Like many bubbles, prices were driven by greed or the fear of missing out. Speculators were buying bulbs in the hope that they could sell them on at an even higher price. Again, it didn’t last. A flurry of sales caused a domino effect, and prices collapsed.

Stephen Innes, head of Asian trading at currency broker Oanda, believes bitcoin bubble could go the same way.

“Prices will become so out of reach of the common man that ultimately demand fades,” he said.

CNN Money

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

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