Euro reigns supreme

Euro reigns supreme

The Euro regained its debatably rightful throne as King of the Hill overnight stampeding higher across the board as currency traders applauded German GDP after Q3 YoY printed an impressive 2.8 %, the highest rate since 2011.

And while the GDP print provided the initial catalyst, the velocity of the move suggests that investors are finally discounting the ECB dovish guidance in the face of stronger economic data and have now entirely back -peddled the sell-off in EUR following the Draghi press conference on October 26.

Besides the robust economic data, there was no shortage of ECB dissenter Hawks flying into the picture last week that probably added to the momentum. As we test the 1.1800 level in early APAC trade, the ECB’s dovish taper is all but a distant memory.

But it was a challenging day for the dollar across the board as investors were unabashedly offloading $ risk ahead of tonight’s critical US CPI print. And, with year-end quickly approaching, investors are more predisposed to reduce rather than hold risk, so  USD appetite was low anyway.

It wasn’t just the dollar that was getting hammered but EM investors were dialling into the year-end mode as well and reducing risk.Predictably the natural risk-correlated assets were moving in tandem as Gold suddenly spiked up to over 1280.00, USDJPY came off the interday highs, and WTI prices spilt lower.

While not quite the perfect storm for dollar bulls, indeed a sobering reminder about the greenbacks numerous shortcomings. And what started off as little more than an exercise in consolidation  could quickly snowball into an all-out blizzard, even more so with the judge Roy Moore scandal presenting blustery headwinds to tax cuts and the Republican Senate majority

Petro FX

In oil markets, it was more or less a belief that eventually, something had to give after this months 10 % tireless rally.And while the overnight sell-off started with a global risk wobble, profit-taking likely triggered the more significant move amidst extended money manager position in the petroleum complex. But given the correlation between oil and FX has been sidelined most of the year, any proportional currency knock-on effect should be limited. The market remains ramped up bullish crude, so currency traders expect any correction to be finite.

The Japanese Yen

Another chop fest, but if anything, overnight price action should remind us just how entrenched current ranges are as positions are quick to mean revert from the maximal edges. But traders are becoming frustrated and capricious and getting no joy from long USDJPY. With that in mind, a definitive broader-based selling theme is developing from uncertainty on both risk and US inflation narratives. So  I suspect only a considerable upside surprise on CPI will get the markets anywhere near 114.50 levels suggesting the downside may open up on a CPI fail

The Australian Dollar

Just when the Aussie looked positioned to move below.7600 The frothy NAB business conditions in October said  NO.  Unquestionably a solid print, but the AUDUSD  couldn’t muster up enough steam to clear .7650 even when the big dollar wobbled overnight. If it’s not a perceived dovish shift in the dormant RBA, its fickle economic data out of China and yesterday’s  dialled back China production numbers have weighed on commodity prices overnight, and the Aussie is once again mouldering at the lower end of recent ranges.

Indeed the bearish signals are aligning, but I’m not sure just how much energy the market has left heading into year-end to make any significant downside assault. Stretched positions are suggesting any move lower will most likely be driven by US side of the equation which at this stage is as big a question mark as what the RBA policy will be in 2018.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes