Crude Oil Hits A Volatility Slick

Crude trading in Asia has continued the quiet tempo of the overnight session as markets await data due later in the week.

Oil’s price action continues to suggest that a slow price correction is underway as both contracts posted yet another lower high for the 4th day in a row. WTI closed unchanged at 56.70, but Brent fell 0.80 % to close at 63.25, perhaps reflecting its stronger speculative inflows of recent times.

 

The technical indicators are somewhat less extreme this morning, but the RSI on both Brent and WTI remain very overbought. An ideal situation for bullish traders would be for both contracts to gently fall over the course of the next week to alleviate the situation, rather than a potentially ugly short-term correction. Whether this happens or not is still to be seen, and the first hurdle will be tonights American Petroleum Institute (API) Crude Inventories followed by the official U.S. Crude Inventories tomorrow evening. The talk will then increasingly turn to the formal OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting in Vienna on the 30th November.

 

Brent remains unchanged at 63.25 in Asia with the twin daily double tops at 64.40 and 64.85 unchallenged. Support is initially at 62.70, the overnight low, with a break opening up a test of 62.00. Critical long-term support is the triple daily bottom at 60.10, 60.00 and then trendline support at 59.65. This area should be the base of any corrective selloff.

Brent Crude Daily

WTI trades at 56.65 in moribund Asian trading with the overnight high at 57.10 the first resistance. Having traced out a series of lower highs, last weeks 57.80 level remains unchallenged resistance.  The overnight low of 56.15 will be the first support with a break opening up clear air all the way to the 54.50 area.

WTI Crude Daily

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley