Saudi Arabia and Russia Puncture Oil’s Recovery

Saudi Arabia and Russian backpedalling popped oil’s balloon on Friday as Hurricane Nate props up prices in Asia. 

The rot set in as both Russia and Saudi Arabia seem to backtrack on their comments that a one-year extension of the production cut was a done deal, with comments softening this stance to an “all options are on the table” tone. This was more the straw that broke the camel’s back as it was the excuse that short-term speculators needed to head en-masse for the door and aggressively cut longs into the weekend. One suspects, in fact, this move would have occurred on Thursday had the Saudis and Russia not been so upbeat.

Oil has found some relief this morning, with both contracts slightly higher at 55.90 and 49.30 respectively, as Hurricane Nate shut down 90.0 % of the U.S. offshore crude production over the weekend. Additionally, much of the refining capacity is temporarily shut across the Gulf seaboard as well as a precaution. The dead cat bounce though suggests that the support may only be transitory.

Brent spot has support at 54.90 initially with a  break suggesting a test of the trend line support at 54.00 is on the cards. Resistance is now at 57.40, a formidable looking double top.

Brent Daily

WTI spot is toying with its 200-day moving average at 49.20 with support close behind at 48.85. A break signals a test of 48.00 and then 47.60, the 100-day moving average. Resistance rests at 50.60 and then 51.00.

WTI Daily

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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