Canada: IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing growth picks up, but inflationary pressures intensify

At 55.0 in September, up from 54.6 in August, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMITM) posted above the 50.0 no-change value for the nineteenth consecutive month. The index signalled a robust improvement in manufacturing business conditions, although the strength of the recovery remained slightly softer than April’s six- year peak.

A key factor behind the rise in the headline PMI since August was faster rates of output and new order growth. Reports from survey respondents cited improving client demand, a supportive economic backdrop and successful product development. While manufacturing companies generally commented on resilient domestic demand, some also noted that subdued export sales had held back growth in September. Latest data indicated only a marginal rise in new orders from abroad, which was partly linked to weak demand from U.S. clients.

Canadian manufacturers indicated a solid degree of job creation in September, although the rate of employment growth eased from August’s survey- record high. Survey respondents commented on renewed efforts to boost capacity in response to rising demand, although some noted that skill shortages had made it more difficult to fill vacancies. Looking ahead, manufacturers are confident about their prospects for output growth over the next 12 months, with the degree of positive sentiment the strongest since April.

Meanwhile, input cost inflation reached its highest level for four months in September, which manufacturers overwhelmingly linked to rising raw material prices. A number of firms noted that U.S. supply disruptions had pushed up prices for chemicals, fuel and metals.

IHS Markit

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell