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Oil, Light Sweet Dreams Are Made Of This

Contrasting fortunes for oil with Brent supported by OPEC, and Hurricane Harvey is washing WTI away.

WTI Spot

WTI fell by some 2.60% overnight as while gasoline futures rose by 3.50% in a somewhat counterintuitive price action. What the street is clearly pricing in as the effects of Hurricane Harvey’s flooding become apparent, is that the United States has plenty of crude oil, the difficulty will be refining it into usable products and then moving it to where it is needed. This may well prove a boon to Asian refiners, who have the immediately available refining capacity, should capacity in Texas and Louisiana be taken offline for a long time. With refiners in Asia suddenly needing to fulfill orders for gasoline and jet fuel for shipment to the U.S.

At this stage, it is still unclear what the final disruption will be, but there is no denying that WTI crude has suffered a very bearish technical development overnight, breaking out of the lower boundary of its recent triangle pattern. WTI spot touched 46.00 overnight becoming initial support, before recovering to 46.70 in early Asia trading. The next support is seen at the 45.00 regions with initial resistance the base of the triangle, today at 47.20.

Brent Spot

The story is very different with Brent spot, which continues to trade constructively, dropping only 0.50% overnight. The near month futures are in backwardation, and the premium over WTI widened to multi-year highs. It has also been bolstered by news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are apparently lobbying the OPEC/Non-OPEC grouping to extend the production cut deal by three months to June 2018.

Brent spot trades midrange at 51.75 this morning with support at 51.20 followed by 50.00. Resistance appears at 52.50 initially and then 52.70 as it continues to consolidate its recent gains supported by more sound fundamentals.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley [4]

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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