EUR/USD has edged higher in the Monday session. Currently the pair is trading at 1.1815, up 0.45% on the day. On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to week, so we’re unlikely to see any significant movement from the pair on Monday. There are no US releases, and the sole euro zone event is the Deutsche Bundesbank monthly bulletin. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is expected to slow to 15.3 points.
The euro took a dip on Thursday, following a terrorist attack in Barcelona, which killed 13 and wounded dozens. EUR/USD dropped below the 1.17 line and touched 3-week lows. However, the euro has quickly recovered, and is trading at 1.18. Barring any geopolitical crises, such as another terrorist attack, we can expect a few slow days until the Jackson Hole summit on Wednesday. Both the ECB and Federal Reserve find themselves pursuing a less accommodative monetary policy, and the markets will be listening closely to Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. Will Yellen hint at a December rate hike? Will Draghi provide clues regarding the windup of the ECB’s asset-purchases program? Any comments in this vein could be seized upon by the markets and trigger strong movement by the euro. This was the case in June, when Draghi spoke at a central bankers meeting in Portugal, and his upbeat comments about the euro zone economy sent the euro soaring.
The US economy remains strong, but political risk in the US has been rising, as the Trump administration continues to spend most of its focus and energy on damage control. The deadly alt-right protest in Charlottesville was a disaster for the White House, as Trump’s belated condemnation of white supremacists and his insistence on blaming the violence on both the white supremacists and the counter-protesters drew wall-to-wall criticism from both Democrat and Republican lawmakers. Trump remains defiant and continues to attack his critics, but the events around Charlottesville have only served to tarnish his image and raised growing concerns about his presidency.
Monday (August 21)
- 6:00 German Buba Monthly Report
Tuesday (August 22)
5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Monday, August 21, 2017
EUR/USD Monday, August 21 at 11:05 EDT
Open: 1.1761 High: 1.1825 Low: 1.1731 Close: 1.1815
EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in the European session and continues to move upwards in the North American session
- 1.1712 is providing support
- 1.1876 is the next resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1712, 1.1616 and 1.1534
- Above: 1.1876, 1.1996, 1.2108 and 1.2221
- Current range: 1.1712 to 1.1876
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (66%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move higher.
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