FOMC Fallout

FOMC Fallout

The Fed has articulated its concerns about the low level of inflation in the US; which lessens the likelihood of a December rate hike. The US dollar then dropped against the other major currencies in a lively afternoon New York session on Wednesday.

As expected, The Feds tipped their hat to the widely telegraphed September balance sheet reduction timing, but it was the subtle downgrade in inflation language which the markets pounced on leaving the December rate hike camp perched precariously. But realistically, after four consecutive misses on US CPI, the writing was on the wall.

Now traders are left mulling over how to deal with the greenback going forward knowing there’s a lot of important data to deal with between now and December. Some are resisting the temptation to not to over react to a Fed that was not supposed to be this dovish, but this price action is too hard to ignore.


The Euro sprang to life taking out the key 1.0715 Euro’s strength continues to be the market focus, and while we’ve stalled out a bit in Asia unless there’s some re-inflationary signal from Friday’s GDP/PCE, it’s hard to envision any support for the greenback near term. Which would suggest the path of least resistance is higher EURUSD From the 1.4 move, down to 1.0341). Where to from here?

G-10 Complex

Everything else has reacted as expected with the both the KIWI and Aussie taking flight
Outside for the FOMC

The US Senate vote to repeal Obamacare failed. So back to headline watching to see whats next.

WTI nearly hit $49.0 on the back of inventory data providing an underpin to the commodity complex.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes