Inventories Grease Oils Rise as Gold Rallies Again

Inventories collapse giving a tailwind to crude oil whilst a weaker dollar lifts gold.

OIL

Both Brent and WTI spot staged an impressive two dollar rally in the New York session as the American Petroleum Institute reported a massive 8.1 million barrel drawdown in inventories overnight. All eyes will now turn to the official U.S. Crude Inventories number this evening where the street is forecasting a 3.2 million barrel drawdown.

A larger than expected drawdown will add fuel to the fire and could see both contracts trading towards the top of their recent ranges of 49.50 and 47.00 respectively. With the Energy Information Administration downgrading 2018 U.S. crude production overnight, one suspects that even an undershoot will see both contracts running into buyers on dips in the short term.

Brent spot trades at 48.00 this morning with resistance at 49.00 initially and supports at 47.25.

WTI spot opened at 45.70 today with resistance at 47.00 and support at 44.80.

GOLD

Gold has climbed overnight to open just below 1220 in Asia today. Although the rally was only some 0.20%, this marks the third consecutive higher open in Asia for gold, as it picks itself up off the floor following last Friday’s sell off to 1205.

The rally overnight has been driven by a lower U.S. Dollar in general. Investors more than likely taking advantage of more attractive levels to go long ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s two-day testimony to Congress which starts today.

Reaction to the latest developments in the Trump/Russia campaign saga has been strangely muted. Whether the street does not think this is a “smoking gun,” apathy, Trump-fatigue or a combination of all of the above remains to be seen.

Although the rally from 1205.00 will be pleasing to gold bulls and now becomes technical support ahead of 1200 and 1195, gold faces stern technical resistance in the 1230.00/1231.00 region. This level capped gold multiple times last week and is now also home to the 200-day moving average.

Gold’s near term direction will now be at the mercy of whether we get a hawkish Yellen on the Hill today, and potential further developments on Russia’s generous offer to assist President Trump’s campaign last year.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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