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ADP Data Suggest U.S Job Market Is Moderating

Companies adding fewer workers to U.S. payrolls in June than the prior month indicates the job market may be cooling after outsized gains earlier this year, data from the ADP Research Institute showed Thursday.


  • Private payrolls rose by 158k (est. 188k) after revised 230k gain in May
  • Payrolls in goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers and builders, were unchanged after a 31k rise in May
  • Service providers accounted for all of the 158k gain in payrolls
  • The second-lowest increase in 2017 probably reflects the challenge of finding skilled workers amid a tightening job market, and may also be a sign businesses are holding off on expansion plans until they see more evidence the new administration’s plans are translating into legislation that will reduce taxes and spur growth. The ADP report may prompt some economists to adjust their forecasts for the private payrolls tally in the June jobs report due from the Labor Department on Friday, where the median estimate is for a gain of 170,000.

    Economist Views

    “The job market continues to power forward,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a statement. Moody’s produces the figures with ADP. “At this pace, which is double the rate of labor force growth, the tight labor market will continue getting tighter.”

    Other Details

    Hiring in construction fell by 2,000 after a 23,000 increase; factories added 6,000 workers
    Professional and business services led with a 69,000 gain; education and health services added 28,000 people; trade, transportation and utilities rose by 30,000

    Companies employing 500 or more workers increased staffing by 50,000 jobs; payrolls jumped by 91,000 at medium-sized businesses, or those with 50 to 499 employees; while small companies’ payrolls rose by 17,000

    Bloomberg [1]

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    Dean Popplewell

    Dean Popplewell [6]

    Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse [7]
    Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
    Dean Popplewell
    Dean Popplewell

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