Canada: Retailers Are Off to Their Best Start Ever

Canada’s retailers have never had it better.

Consumers continued their free-spending ways in April, pushing retail sales to a 0.8 percent gain from the prior month and bringing the total increase since the beginning of the year to 3.6 percent, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. That matches the best start to a year in data back to 1991.

The figures highlight how much consumers — buoyed by strong employment growth — have powered the nation’s economy out of an oil crash, generating growth that is among the highest in the developed world. At the same time, that’s raising concern the increases may not be sustainable, with much of the spending fueled by the wealth effects from a soaring real estate market.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated a 0.3 percent gain, the median forecast.

Thursday’s data should bolster confidence in economist projections that the economy continued to expand at a pace of about 2 percent in the second quarter, after a 3.7 percent annualized gain in the first quarter.

Other Key Points

The gain in retail sales in April was powered by the country’s two biggest provinces: Quebec (1.6 percent) and Ontario (1 percent).

Excluding car and parts dealers, retail sales were up 1.5 percent in April and has gained 4 percent since the start of the year. That’s the best start on record.

The gains so far this year have been driven by actual new sales rather than price increases. Volume sales were up 0.3 percent in April and the 3.3 percent year-to-date gain is also a record start.

The year-to-date increase in total retail sales matches a record start also recorded in 1999 and again in 2006.


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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell