The euro has ticked lower in the Tuesday session, as EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1250. On the economic front, there are no major eurozone indicators. In the eurozone, indicators pointed to a slowdown in the retail sector. Retail PMI dipped to 52.0, down from 52.7 points. As well, Retail Sales dropped to 0.1%, down from the previous reading of 0.3%. This was short of the estimate of 0.2%. On a brighter note, Sentix Investor Confidence improved for a fourth straight month, with a reading of 28.4 points. This easily beat the estimate of 27.6 points. In the US, today’s key event is JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to drop to 5.65 million.
The markets are keeping a close eye on the ECB, as policymakers meet on Thursday for a policy meeting. The central bank has held the benchmark rate at a flat 0.0% since March 2016, and no change is expected at the upcoming meeting. Still, the markets would like to see the ECB acknowledge a stronger eurozone economy, and will be looking for a more hawkish tone from the rate statement and follow-up comments from ECB head Mario Draghi. The ECB has been cautious and is not expected to taper its asset-purchase program, which winds up in December. Still, any hawkish nuances in the rate statement or Draghi’s comments will be seized upon by the markets, and could push the euro upwards.
The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting next week, and the markets are widely expecting the Fed to raise rates for the second time in 2017. On Monday, the odds of a rate increase stood at 96%, but the odds have dipped to 91%, in response to the dismal Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. An increase in interest rates represents a vote of confidence in the US economy, but the Fed continues to have some concerns. Inflation remains stubbornly low, despite a labor market that remains close to capacity. Fed policy makers are also scratching their heads over soft consumer spending, which has not kept pace with high levels of consumer confidence. As for additional rate hikes in the second half of 2017, the markets remain skeptical, with the odds of a September rate hike at just 22%. However, stronger data in the third quarter will likely raise the likelihood a September hike.
Tuesday (June 6)
- 4:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Actual 52.0
- 4:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate 27.6. Actual 28.4
- 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%
- 10:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 5.65M
- 10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 51.6
*All release times are EDT
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Tuesday, June 6, 2017
EUR/USD Tuesday, June 6 at 6:15 EDT
Open: 1.1257 High: 1.1278 Low: 1.1242 Close: 1.1248
EUR/USD ticked higher in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair has reversed directions and edged lower
- 1.1242 remains under pressure in support
- 1.1366 is the next resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1242, 1.1122, 1.0985 and 1.0873
- Above: 1.1366, 1.1465 and 1.1534
- Current range: 1.1242 to 1.1366
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio remains unchanged this week. In the Tuesday session, short positions have a majority (68%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move lower.