It’s all about the wages

It’s all about the wages

The Dollar is opening an on slightly better footing this morning in part due to a big May ADP print ( +253) and more robust ISM manufacturing data, and as traders trim short USD positions ahead of tonight’s Key NFP data. While the market took solace in the solid ADP prints, investors are mindful that this evening’s  absolute jobs number will influence USD sentiment much less than the wages component. It’s all about the wages as the AHE will be a key metric for the  Fed Watchers. 

USD Higher Ahead of NFP

But wise not to get too complacent on the headline print as the 50K Delta over/under could significantly shift rate hike expectation probabilities beyond June.Given the recent string of middling US economic data, the greater risk would be for a downside miss given the current negative dollar view. Whereas  it would likely  take a daily double  on both the Headline and AHE for the Greenback to convincingly break out  of its current funk No question, with the major Trump Tax themes growing dimmer by the day,  it’s going to take a substantial  jolt of the data to shake this dollar doldrums

The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all galloped to record highs as equity investors were fired up by the ADP report. After a string of weak to middling economic data this past week, the large print has eased investor angst that the US economy is running out of steam and now appear  more upbeat heading into tonight’s NFP

The roller coaster affectionately dubbed ” Oil Patch” is heading lower again. After making it’s way up the lift hill on significant US inventories draw, we’re back on the dive drop as the old familiar themes come to the fore.The supply glut continues to weigh on near-term sentiment, despite the decline in US inventories,  while the prospects of shale output production rising weights substantially on future prices.

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Chinese Yuan

A follow up to yesterday’s  major CNH headlines: Finally, a reprieve from the severe Tom Next funding crisis as the three-day carry fell from 300 to 85  in London. And predictably the USDCNH bounced above 6.75 after plummeting to 6.7250 in  Asia. While the Pboc has made their views loud and clear, but as the funding crisis abates,  I suspect the markets will sheepishly test the water probing every so slightly higher to challenge the Pboc’s resolve.But after getting spanked this week,  I believe the aggressive  Yuan bears will either go into hibernation or take to the sidelines licking their wounds for the foreseeable future.

Pre CNY fixing: USDCNH trading 6.7570

Australian Dollar

AUD  is finally caving and was hammered mercilessly thanks to     China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI slipping into dreaded contraction zone and plummeting iron ore prices.

The commodity bloc is receiving little support from oil prices which have fallen over a dollar per barrel this morning, and with Iron Ore prices having trouble finding a bid anywhere, we could be setting up for a purposeful move lower for the Aussie

Despite the growing list of Aussie negatives, we’re likely in a holding pattern for the day after failing to take out .7365 level overnight.The proximity of NFP suggests the next move will be dollar driven, so traders may either opt to sell at better levels post NFP or jump on the waggon if the greenback returns to favour post data. But with high level of USD risk entering the week’s end, dealers preference  to express their negative AUD bias is more likely on the crosses with the  EURAUD the current market favourite 

Next week focus will pivot to domestic concerns as the RBA board meeting, and Q1 GDP will hog the limelight. While no change in interest rates is expected at next week’s RBA meeting, the markets will key on the RBA’s post-meeting statement. But unless the RBA alters their steady as she goes, that too will most likely be a non-event and traders will turn their focus back to external drivers.


The monthly end portfolio rebalancing supply of dollars along with some hawkish ECB rhetoric has helped the EURO sentiment into weeks end. And while the current landscape suggests the short-term market is long and want’s  to get more extended on dips the increasingly likely Italian elections in September/October has thrown a monkey wrench in the works, and probably tempered some expectation for a near-term shift in ECB policy. But none the less the EURUSD should continue to grind higher based on solid EU  economic data alone, and if it can break through the large supply of Euro’s currently on offer through 1.1250-65 region, a break of  1.1300 is all but a done deal.

Hard to make too much of a meal of this morning price action, it’s notably quiet but not untypical of pre NFP trading conditions.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes