Sleepy markets but about to get interesting.

Sleepy markets but about to get interesting

It was a quiet session overnight, as both Asia and London were on holiday and New York was unable to muster any steam. Despite the slow start, this week’s diary picks up with an important RBA meeting today, FOMC mid-week followed by the granddaddy of economic data on Friday – the key US Nonfarm Payrolls report. On the Trump watch, investors took some relief that House and Senate representatives have reached a USD1.1t trillion deal to fund the government through the remainder of this fiscal year. While on the currency markets, with little fresh to gather from the overnight markets, the two main impressions were the resilience of the AUDUSD, now trading above .7500, and USDJPY now within striking distance of 112.00.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar is discernibly higher this morning, suggesting that pre-RBA Rate Decision flow is skewed towards a stronger response from the RBA than had been anticipated. Despite recently trapped in a downtrend due to trade and commodity factors, last week’s slight CPI miss and recent employment data are supporting the view the RBA will lean more towards the next move a rate hike than a rate cut. For this week at least, it appears domestic factors are trumping external factors for the Aussie dollar.

Later in the week, the Federal Reserve Board are unlikely to alter policy, but with the string of subpar economic data, the urgency for increasing interest rates has lessened somewhat, so the market does view a play on the tale of the two central bank themes. But for June US rate hike probabilities it likely comes down the firmer wages component of the NFP data which should get the dollar bulls excited.

Japanese Yen

Despite weaker US economic data overnight, the market is still in risk catch up mode with the French election uncertainty all but diminished. Also, the US funding extension will keep market expectations high, so that we could see a deal on Obamacare, which could make a path for Tax Reform. IN addition, US bond yields are firmer after the US treasury announced they would increase borrowing supporting 10 years differentials. 

The BOJ minutes indicated little new, and while currency concerns are not within the BOJ’s overall purview, the Yen’s near to medium term tangent to be determined by interest rate differentials., the BOJ was cautious to avoid any language that could be misconstrued as an adjustment toward tapering or monetary easing. Members agreed that inflation lacks strength, but the economy continued to recover moderately.


Oil prices declined overnight, hobbled by a report of high Libya oil production and from fallout from Friday’s Baker Hughes report of another increase in drilling rigs. Supply concerns continue to weigh negatively.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes