Asia Très Calme Ahead of French Vote

Euro and GBP are unchanged, and most asset classes in Asia are almost so, as markets await France’s 1st round presidential runoff this weekend.

If the price action on most G-10 currency pairs and precious metals were an electrocardiogram printout today, the Doctor would be screaming “code blue” and reaching for the electric paddles; such has been the quietness of the price action.  Asia has any positioning it wants (or not) into this weekend’s French election, or they are content to let early Europe lead the way. With currencies and metals becalmed, only equity indices have shown signs of life, moderately up following Wall Street’s performance overnight.

On the data front, it is strictly 2nd tier with PMI’s from the eurozone, Germany, France and the U.S. Canada releases its March CPI which might spark some activity for traders of the loonie persuasion. Otherwise, we expect markets to move on headlines and final rejigging of positions into this weekend’s “Le Crunch.”

FX

EUR/USD

Monday morning’s price action may well be “exciting” to say the least in the twilight zone of early New Zealand and Australia when the results come out. It’s worth, therefore, taking a look at some of the bigger picture levels.

EUR has resistance at yesterday’s high of 1.0780 followed by the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.0845 and then March’s high of 1.0905.

Support sits at the 100-DMA at 1.0633 ahead of the rising trendline back to December at 1.0610. After this, we have 1.0490 and then 1.0390.

A Melenchon vs. Le Pen run-off may well render these levels academic I will add.

EUR/USD Daily

USD/JPY

Has been gratefully out of the limelight this week as Europe takes the limelight. Easing tensions in the region have also helped USD/JPY paint a fairly constructive short-term technical picture this week, with a series of higher daily lows. Depending on Sunday’s result, USD/JPY may not be it’s own on Monday, pushed around by EUR/JPY flows.

Nevertheless, in the bigger picture USD, the technical outlook still looks bearish with the descending trendline coming in at around 110.00, the breakout from last week and resistance anyway. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY would need a couple of daily closes above this area to imply the worst may be over for now.

Support is at yesterday’s low and also the 200-DMA, at 108.78. Below here next support is at 108.08.

USD/JPY Daily

INDICES

ASX 200

The ASX enjoyed a positive day following on from a frothy Wall Street. The exchange down under got another boost in Asia as resource stocks rallied with copper and iron ore. The Dalian iron ore futures rallying a whopping 7% on the day.

Zooming out to the longer term chart, the ASX continues to trade constructively from a technical perspective. The ascending wedge formation is clear to see on the daily chart.

The ASX enjoys trendline support at 5740 with the 100-DMA at 5711 just behind.

Above, the April highs at 5950 form the top of the wedge and the next longer term resistance.

Australia 200 Daily

NIKKEI 225

A constructive week as a weaker Yen has boosted Japan exporter stocks. The Nikkei is closing in on its pivot level, just above, at 18,790 with the 100-DMA above at 19153. Above there we see resistance at 19,355 and then 19,720, which has been a multiple daily high since December.

Support appears at 18,265 followed by the 200-DMA at 18,160.

Japan 225

The Nikkei should be a high-beta to the results in France on early Monday, given its sensitivity to the movements of the Yen.

PRECIOUS METALS AND OIL

No change from this morning’s missive which can be found here. Wolves Circle Oil and Gold Ahead of Le Crunch. The chart perspectives are not constructive for precious metals or oil, but we may have to wait until Monday for our answer.

SUMMARY

Asia has remained in a holding pattern as the markets settle down to see if French voters storm The Bastille, or stay “on message.” Early Monday trading, with its usual much-reduced liquidity at the best of times, should see some volatility. The question will be how orderly or disorderly it will be, and only the French can tell us that. Merci beaucoup et bon weekend..

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