USD/CAD has edged higher in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3350. On the release front, manufacturing data is in focus on both sides of the border. Canada releases Manufacturing PMI and the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey. The US publishes ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, Canada releases Trade Balance.
Canada’s economy expanded 0.6% in January, easily beating the forecast of 0.3%. This marked a 7-month high for GDP, and raises hopes that a strong US economy will boost its northern neighbor. Although the Canadian economy has been churning out decent numbers, lower oil prices have had a negative impact on the Canadian economy and also weighed on the Canadian dollar, which remains above the 1.33 level. Later in the week, we’ll get a look at Canadian Employment Change, which is expected to post a modest gain of 5.7 thousand.
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but smooth. The battles with the media continue, an economic policy remains a mystery, and Trump suffered a major setback as he couldn’t even muster a vote over his healthcare bill. Despite these hiccups, the US economy hasn’t missed a beat in 2017. The CB consumer confidence report soared to 125.6 in March, and strong consumer confidence levels should translate into increased consumer spending. GDP for the fourth quarter was revised to 2.1%, up from 1.9% in the previous GDP report. This points to strong growth for the economy, as the discussions around the monetary policy tables are not whether the Fed will raise rates, but will it press the rate trigger twice or three times in 2017. The Fed will release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday, and the markets will be looking for clues as to the timing of a possible rate hike.
Monday (April 3)
- 9:30 Canadian Manufacturing PMI
- 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.5
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.2
- 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 1.0%
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 68.5
- 10:30 US BoC Business Outlook Survey
- 10:30 US FOMC Member Esther Dudley Speech
- All Day – US Total Vehicles Sales. Estimate 17.4M
- 15:00 US FOMC Member Patrick Harker Speech
Tuesday (April 4)
- 8:30 Canada Trade Balance. Estimate 0.7B
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Monday, April 3, 2017
USD/CAD April 3 at 8:20 EST
Open: 1.3326 High: 1.3362 Low: 1.3309 Close: 1.3347
- USD/CAD showed limited movement in the Asian session and has edged upwards in European trade
- 1.3253 is providing support
- 1.3371 remains a weak resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3253, 1.3120 and 1.3006
- Above: 1.3371, 1.3461, 1.3551 and 1.3672
- Current range: 1.3253 to 1.3371
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (57%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving lower.
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