EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0670. It’s a very busy start to the week, with a host of manufacturing releases out of the eurozone and the US. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.3, while Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.2 points. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to dip to 57.2 points. We’ll also hear from two FOMC members – Esther Dudley and Patrick Harker.
The euro has steadied on Monday, following a weak performance last week. EUR/USD dropped 1.9 percent, marking its worst weekly decline since November 2016. Soft inflation numbers in the eurozone disappointed the markets and soured sentiment on the continental currency. German Preliminary CPI posted a weak gain of 0.2%, short of the forecast of 0.4%. This was followed by Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate, which slipped to 1.5%, missing the forecast of 1.8%. At the same time, German employment and retail sales data beat expectations, as the German economy continues to expand at a healthy clip in 2017.
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but smooth. The battles with the media continue, an economic policy remains a mystery, and Trump suffered a major setback has he couldn’t even muster a vote over his healthcare bill. Despite these hiccups, the US economy hasn’t missed a beat in 2017. The CB consumer confidence report soared to 125.6 in March, and strong consumer confidence levels should translate into increased consumer spending. GDP for the fourth quarter was revised to 2.1%, up from 1.9% in the previous GDP report. This points to strong growth for the economy, as the discussions around the monetary policy tables are not whether the Fed will raise rates, but will it press the rate trigger twice or three times in 2017. The Fed will release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday, and the markets will be looking for clues as to the timing of a possible rate hike.
Monday (April 3)
- 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.6. Actual 53.9
- 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.2. Actual 55.7
- 3:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.4. Actual 53.3
- 3:55 German Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.3. Actual 58.3
- 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.3. Actual 56.2
- 4:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 11.9%. Actual 11.5%
- 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
- 5:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 9.5%. Actual 9.5%
- 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.5
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.2
- 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 1.0%
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 68.5
- 10:30 US FOMC Member Esther Dudley Speech
- All Day – US Total Vehicles Sales. Estimate 17.4M
- 15:00 US FOMC Member Patrick Harker Speech
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Monday, April 3, 2017
EUR/USD April 3 at 5:20 EST
Open: 1.0687 High: 1.0597 Low: 1.0672 Close: 1.0665
EUR/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions
- 1.0616 is providing support
- 1.0708 is a weak resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.0616, 1.0506 and 1.04
- Above: 1.0708, 1.0873, 1.0985 and 1.1097
- Current range: 1.0616 to 1.0708
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long and short positions are almost evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction EUR/USD takes next.
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