The DAX Index is steady in the Thursday session, as the DAX trades at 12,208.00. On the release front, key releases out of the eurozone and the US could shake up the euro on Thursday. Germany will release Preliminary CPI, which is expected to soften to 0.4%. The US will publish Final GDP, with an estimate of 2.0%, compared to Preliminary GDP which came in at 1.9%. On Friday, Germany releases retail sales and unemployment claims, and the Eurozone will publish CPI Flash Estimate.
The DAX started the week with strong gains and pushed above the 12,000 level. This was triggered by a strong German business confidence report and President Trump’s failure to pass health legislation to replace parts of Obamacare. Germany will release key consumer inflation and spending data on Thursday and Friday, and unexpected readings could affect the direction of the DAX. The economy, the largest in Europe, has has enjoyed a robust first quarter in 2017. Stronger global trade has led to increased demand for German exports, notably cars and machinery. Germany’s GDP expanded 1.6% in 2016, its highest rate since 2012. The generally positive picture in Germany has boosted the eurozone economy and if the strong numbers continue, the ECB will be under more pressure to tighten monetary policy.
It’s been a rough-and-tumble start for the Trump administration, which has been beset by controversy and crises since Trump assumed office in January. Trump has yet to provide any details of an economic policy, to the consternation of the markets. Last week, Trump’s proposed healthcare bill was dead on arrival before even being voted on, a humiliating defeat for the president. This setback has made the markets even more jittery about Trump, and the inquiry into the Trump administration’s links with Russia is gathering steam, which is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has said he will now focus on tax reform, but the White House will need to improve coordination with Republican lawmakers to ensure that his next attempt to pass legislation is not a repeat of the healthcare debacle.
Thursday (March 30)
- 3:00 Spanish Flash CPI. Estimate 2.6%. Actual 2.3%
- All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.4%
- Tentative – Italian 10-y Bond Auction
- 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.0%
Upcoming Key Events
Friday (March 31)
- 2:00 German Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
- 3:55 German Unemployment Claims. Estimate -10K
- 5:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.8%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
DAX, Thursday, March 30 at 6:30 EST
Open: 12,214.50 High: 12,231.25 Low: 12,199.00 Close: 12,208.00