Great Debate

Great French Debate

The first great French debate has the polls showing Macaron performing well as the markets were quick to react. The Euro has recovered all its pre-debate risk off, bouncing pointedly higher with S&P equities in tow as risk appetite remains sturdy, post-debate.

 The French debate poll by Elsie showed that most voters (29%) said Macron was the winner of the debate. Fillon and Le Pen were even with 11% of the votes, while Melenchon earned 20%.

 Having held above the 1.0700 support, the Euro continues to reassert itself post-debate. With EURUSD traders gunning higher on the apparent pivot in ECB policy, in particular with the uber-doves like Visco flying to the hawks’ nest, it would suggest a test of the critical 1.0800 is in the offing with the market firmly in buy the dip mode.

RBA minutes
All in all, the minutes were upbeat despite some concerns over labour market slack, but the positive assessments of global affairs should balance out those issues. The problem for the Aussie is that the market is long and there was not enough meat in the minutes for dealers to add to their positions. Overall, I suspect the long Aussie players will be looking for a continuation of the broader dollar weakness to cement their view and push above this huge .7750-75 resistance barriers.


Although USDJPY traded heavy early in the session, resilient risk appetite has underpinned today’s movements. The near-term outlook comes down to how aggressive the continuation of USD unwinds transpires. At this stage, the French debate has sidestepped the latest pressure point and I suspect the USDJPY bulls took a sigh of relief while the near-term dollar bears quickly gave up the game. Back to the range, it seems, while the market pivots to the trade narrative and how near-term US administration policies will impact the global supply chain.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes