USD/JPY is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 114.70. In Japan, PPI climbed to 1.0%, matching the forecast. This marked a second straight gain after a long string of declines. Core Machinery Orders disappointed with a sharp decline of 3.2%, well short of the forecast of 0.0%. In the US, there is one minor event on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases PPI, with the index expected to slip to 0.1%.
Japanese manufacturing numbers were mixed last week. After over a year of declines, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders has posted two straight gains, including a strong gain of 9.1% in February. The BSI Manufacturing Index, based on a survey of large manufacturers, disappointed in the first quarter, dropping to 1.1 points. The markets had predicted a much stronger reading of 8.4 points.
The US economy continues to steam ahead at full speed, buoyed by a red-hot labor market. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls sparkled with a gain of 235 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 196 thousand. The strong release makes it a virtual certainty that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. Although a rate hike has been priced in by the markets, there have been disappointments in the past, so a rate move will likely give the dollar a boost against its major rivals, such as the euro. The solid job numbers also give President Trump a much-needed boost. Trump is under pressure to present an economic agenda, but the markets won’t mind giving him some additional breathing room with the economy performing well.
Sunday (March 12)
- 19:50 Japanese Core Machinery Orders. Estimate 0.0%. Actual -3.2%
- 19:50 Japanese PPI. Estimate 1.0%. Actual 1.0%.
Monday (March 13)
- 00:30 Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
- 10:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index
Upcoming Key Events
Tuesday (March 14)
- 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.1%
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
USD/JPY for Monday, March 13, 2017
USD/JPY March 13 at 9:50 EST
Open: 114.72 High: 114.92 Low: 114.48 Close: 114.73
USD/JPY edged lower in the Asian session but recovered in European trade. The pair is steady in North American trade
- 113.80 is providing support
- 114.83 was tested in resistance earlier and is a weak line
- Current range: 113.80 to 114.83
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 113.80, 112.57, 110.94, and 109.77
- Above: 114.83, 115.90 and 116.88
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
In the Monday session, USD/JPY ratio is showing long positions with a slender majority (52%), indicative of slight trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out and moving higher.