Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

Senior Federal Reserve officials have commented recently on how undesirable it would be if the Donald Trump administration implemented expansionary fiscal policy right now.

This new view is inconsistent with the Fed’s prior position that the labor market is not tight and that meaningful room remains for additional hiring. The Fed argued for some time that there still was plenty of slack in the labor market — the central bank’s primary justification for raising interest rates only very slowly over an extended period. If the Fed really believes that there is a lot of room for incremental hiring and that inflation will remain at bay for another two years, a more stimulative fiscal policy should be welcomed, not discouraged.

In my judgment, rates are too low and the Fed’s monetary policy is overly accommodative, and this will become increasingly apparent as inflation increases in response to economic growth that pushes unemployment even further below full employment. The Fed seems to be shifting its view and adopting that perspective, too, albeit slowly.

Bloomberg View

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady Ahead of Key Manufacturing Report

OECD Raises Italian 2017 GDP Forecast to 1%


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

Latest posts by Craig Erlam (see all)