Fidelity Analyst Says US Pro-growth Agenda Delay Is not Doom

The promised policy trifecta of the Trump administration — tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending — should push the U.S. economy higher if passed, but a stall in may not mean doom for markets, economist Jurrien Timmer said Monday.

“There’s actually globally synchronized momentum, and people lose sight of that because everyone is focused on the headlines. But the global economy is accelerating, and that’s a good thing for earnings and for the markets,” Timmer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Timmer, chief U.S. economist at Fidelity Investments, said the market has so far met President Donald Trump halfway by pricing in his proposed agenda.

“If you look at small caps relative to large caps, they went from a minus 12 percent spread last summer to a plus 18 percent spread in December,” Timmer said. “Because small, domestic — they benefitted more from tax cuts, deregulation.”

But unrelated global momentum shouldn’t be discounted, and the “global synchronized expansion” could overshadow U.S. markets if Trump’s agenda doesn’t make it through Congress, Timmer said.

“Now, the S&P is catching up to the Russell; global stocks are catching up to U.S. stocks,” the economist said. “So it’s not necessarily up versus down, but it’s in terms of the leadership. The more momentum is lost, the more [global] stocks will catch up to U.S. stocks.”

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza