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What Can We Expect From BoE on Super Thursday?

BoE Expected to Raise Growth Forecasts on Thursday

It’s been more than seven months since the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum that will change the shape of the country for years and despite strong warnings in the run up to the vote, the economy is still ticking along nicely.

This should make Super Thursday another interesting affair for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as he faces the very journalists he delivered those warnings to and has since faced some tough questions from.

The central bank is expected to upgrade its growth forecasts again following the meeting which will most likely invite yet more questions of credibility for the BoE, the only addition this time being that inflation is rising and fast. What approach will Carney take on Thursday?

GBP/USD – Pound Climbs on Solid UK Manufacturing PMI [1]

Before we get to the press conference, it is first worth noting that we’re not expecting any changes in interest rates or asset purchases from the BoE on Thursday, or at any point in the near future for that matter. What we would like to know is when we can expect a change and in what direction will that likely be.

During his last Super Thursday appearance Carney indicated that the central bank has a neutral position on interest rates which would suggest the next is as likely to be a hike as a cut. While I’m sure a hike would be the less desirable option given the cloudy economic outlook, if inflation keeps rising the central bank may be left with little option. It may well depend on how much the central bank is willing to look through the temporary factors, such as rising commodity prices and rapid sterling depreciation.

It will be interesting to see how Carney and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee weigh up the current resilience in the economy with the inflation and growth outlook, and the downside risks it likely still believes will materialise.

Despite the acknowledgement that growth is expected to be higher given the data in recent months, I expect Carney will be keen to highlight the rise in inflation (annual CPI 1.6% in December from 0.3% in May, core 1.6% from 1.2%) and annual PPI input prices (15.8% in December from -4.3% in May) which will likely apply further inflationary pressure down the road and eat away real incomes.

CPI [2]

Core CPI [3]

PPI Input [4]

For more charts and data, check out our economic calendar [5].

In terms of what we can expect for sterling, the most obvious thing is volatility given the mixed picture of better current growth and forecasts and higher inflation combined with warnings of downside risks.

FOMC Decision Eyed as Trump Talks Down the Dollar [6]

The pound is trading at its highest level since the middle of December against the dollar and if traders buy into the stronger growth story and ignore the warnings, given their failure to materialise in the past, we could see further gains in the pound which may weigh on the FTSE, given their inverse relationship, particularly since the referendum.

For more insight on how the pound and FTSE could respond and what levels could be important, check out our Bank of England charting video below.

BoE Super Thursday Preview [7]

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam [11]

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA [12]
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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