XAU/USD – Gold Quiet as Markets Hunt for Cues

Gold prices are almost unchanged at the start of the week. In Monday’s North American session, the spot price for one ounce is $1217.81. On the release front, there are no economic releases on the schedule.

After a dreadful fourth quarter, gold has started 2017 with gusto, jumping 5.7 percent in January. Uncertainty and unease surrounding Trump’s plans as president could take the wind out of the markets and push gold prices higher. At the same time, the economy is doing well and the Fed continues to talk about raising rates gradually in 2017, which would be bearish for gold prices. It will be a tricky task trying to predict where gold is headed until Trump begins to outline some economic policies and we see the response of the US economy.

Donald Trump was sworn in as president on Friday and the anti-Trump forces wasted no time in “welcoming” the new president. The inauguration on Friday proceeded without incident, but protesters responded with a massive protest march on Saturday in Washington, much to the irritation of Trump. Although there is an unwritten rule that a new president is granted 100 days of grace, this may not prove to be the case this time around. The bruising election campaign is still fresh, Trump is in  combative mood and continues to snipe at the media, so chivalry and goodwill will be in short supply. As we enter uncharted territory under Trump, how will the US dollar react? On Friday, Oanda’s Stephen Innes provided this assessment:

the downside risk for the USD remains elevated more so from Trump’s inauguration if he fails to underscore economic policy. On the other hand, if Donald comes out firing on all fiscal stimulus cylinders, bond yield will surge, and the greenback would catch an enormous updraft… the President–elect takes centre stage as we begin a new chapter in American politics and global financial markets. Buckle up; we are likely in for a wild ride in the coming 100 days [see the first link below for the full article]

We begin a new chapter for the US Dollar

Trumps Protection Bias Damages Dollar

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (January 23)

• There are no US events on the schedule

XAU/USD for Monday, January 23, 2017

XAU/USD January 23 at 13:05 EST

Open: 1215.44 High: 1219.54 Low: 1209.14 Close: 1217.81

XAU/USD Technical

• XAU/USD is showing limited movement in the Monday session
• 1199 is providing support
• 1232 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1199 to 1232

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1199, 1174, 1146 and 1130
• Above: 1232, 1260 and 1285

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a strong majority (71%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD breaking out and climbing to higher levels.

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