USD/JPY floats in the Ichimoko Cloud

After a breathtaking rally over the last three and a half weeks, USD/JPY could finally pause for a well-earned rest.

Donald Trump’s victory already seems like a long time ago. The most notable beneficiary in the G10 space has off course been USD/JPY. With the reflation trade yield jump in bonds pushing out the USD vs. Yen basis differential. This has driven outflows of JPY into USD assets. Japan is highly unlikely to be labelled a “currency manipulator” by the new administration either given the Yen free floats. The jump higher in oil gave USD/JPY another shot in the arm last night as well with Yen being sold as Japan imports almost all its oil. Higher oil = weaker Yen.

We have though, come an awfully long way in a short space of time and a lot of the low hanging fruit has been priced in for now. Seeking some big picture inspiration, I had a look at the USD/JPY weekly chart today, and it popped up a few things worth sharing.

First of all the 100-week moving average come in at the weekly high thus far of around 114.80. Give or take a few pips that are also a previous weekly high in February 2016. The 100-week moving average was also around those levels at that time co-incidentally.

USD/JPY broke into the weekly Ichi moko cloud last week spurring another rally, and we are floating in the upper echelons of it as we speak.

Resistance is the top of the cloud at 115.62. A weekly close above here could suggest a move to the  121.70 area. Conversely, if this level holds then support is at the bottom of the cloud at 111.64 and then 106.90 the  200-week moving average.

The weekly RSI is moving towards overbought territory although we’re not there yet suggesting we may still have some life to the topside.

USDJPYWeekly

USD/JPY Weekly

With Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow bound to provoke some excitement, it is worth watching this 115.62 level.  Depending on which side of it USD/JPY closes at, this may signal either another run to the topside or a precursor to a decent downside correction.

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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