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U.S Retail Sales Jump More Than Forecast

Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast last month in a broad advance after an even stronger September than initially estimated, showing consumers continue to pump up the economy.

A 0.8 percent rise in October followed an upwardly revised 1 percent jump in the prior month, marking the biggest back-to-back increase since 2014, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.6 percent gain.

Healthy hiring, wage growth and limited inflation are giving Americans the wherewithal to spend at stores, malls and online merchants. Momentum at the start of the quarter bodes well for household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, during the approaching holiday-shopping season.

“A strong October following a strong September is encouraging,” Tom Simons, a senior economist at Jefferies LLC, said before the report. “The labor market continues to be strong, and wage growth appears to be accelerating. We expect a solid pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.”

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey for total retail sales ranged from gains of 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent after a previously reported 0.6 percent rise a month earlier.

Sales improved in 11 of 13 major categories for a second straight month in October, the report showed. That included the biggest advance in five months at Internet retailers and the strongest month for apparel chains since February.

Furniture outlets and restaurants were the only major categories registering a decline in October sales.

Auto purchases remained robust, climbing 1.1 percent after a 1.9 percent increase.

Motor Vehicles

That’s consistent with industry data that showed the torrid demand is continuing. Purchases of cars and light trucks grew at a 17.9 million annualized rate, the strongest pace since November of last year, after 17.7 million the previous month, according to Ward’s Automotive Group.

Retail sales excluding automobiles and service stations increased 0.6 percent after a 0.5 percent gain a month earlier, the Commerce Department data showed.
The figures used to calculate gross domestic product, which exclude categories such as food services, auto dealers, home-improvement stores and service stations, climbed 0.8 percent. The increase in the so-called retail control group was the largest since April and followed a 0.3 percent September gain that was stronger than first reported.

Clothing merchant sales increased 0.6 percent last month, while non-store retailers jumped 1.5 percent.

Receipts at gasoline stations rose 2.2 percent. The Commerce Department’s retail sales data aren’t adjusted for prices, so rising fuel costs boost filling-station receipts.

A separate report Tuesday from the Labor Department showed prices of imports to the U.S. rose by the most in four months, led by higher fuel costs. The import-price index increased 0.5 percent in October.

The cost of imported fuel was 3.8 percent higher than a year earlier, marking the first advance since July 2014.

Bloomberg [1]

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell [6]

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse [7]
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

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