Goldman Says Not to Expect Brexit Surprise in US Elections

With their candidate lagging in most of the major polls, Donald Trump’s supporters are hoping the election holds a surprise akin to June’s Brexit vote.

Goldman Sachs, though, believes the chances of a Nov. 8 surprise in the U.S. are remote.

The two races differ in several key ways, Goldman economist Alec Phillips said, diminishing the possibility of a repeat where polling incorrectly suggested that Britons would vote to stay in the European Union.

“We think the situation is different for two reasons. First, and most importantly, while both situations represented an opportunity for voters to endorse a change in the status quo, voters in the U.K. were asked to decide on an idea whereas in the U.S. they are being asked to decide on a person,” Phillips said in a note to clients Wednesday. “Second, the polls are simply not as close in the current presidential contest as they were ahead of the U.K. referendum.”
On the first point, Phillips obviously is correct. The second, though, isn’t as clear.

True, some polls have showed a yawning gap between the two candidates. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the Hillary Clinton lead at 11 points, the last ABC tracking poll had the Democrat ahead by 8 and CNN has the advantage at 6 points.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza