Fed’s Rosengren Sees US Inflation Beating 2% Target Next Year

By the middle of next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren says he expects unemployment to fall to 4.7 percent and inflation to beat the Fed’s 2 percent target, leaving policymakers at risk of having to squelch the recovery with faster-than-expected rate increases.

When Rosengren surprised markets with his dissent at September’s Fed meeting and argued for an immediate rate rise, it was with that forecast in mind, and a concern that the best way to protect future job growth is to slow things a bit now even if it is a risk, he said.

“We have the luxury right now to make a change, wait a little while, see what the impact is,” Rosengren said at the conclusion of the Boston Fed’s annual economic conference in an interview with Reuters.

“If you wait too long … the more likely you are going to have to do it more quickly … The less likely you are to calibrate it just right.”

The result: a jobless rate that might dip to an ultra-low level, but then force the Fed to risk a recession with faster increases. Rosengren argues the Fed might instead engineer a soft landing that brings the economy to full employment and “we would basically stay there.”

His view puts him in the odd position of lodging dissents in recent years from different directions. In 2013 he opposed the decision to cut monthly bond purchases because “patience remains appropriate” in an economy yet to prove its strength.

Now, he is itchy to pull the trigger, though arguing his aim is the same, to maximize employment through the business cycle.

The dissent, in essence the “dovish” case for a rate hike, comes amid renewed discussion over how much room U.S. labor markets have to improve. At her press conference last month Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she felt there was still “room to run.”

via Kitco

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza