USD Hits 11 Week High on Fed December Rate Hike

The dollar hit an 11-week high on Tuesday as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December following a round of generally solid U.S. economic data over the last few weeks.

Sterling continued its downward trek following a “flash crash” event last Friday, with investors concerned about the impact of a “hard exit” by Britain from the European Union. Over the past week, the British pound has lost more than four percent of its value against the dollar.

In the United States, investors are also looking to Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the latest Fed monetary policy meeting for confirmation of the market’s December rate hike view. The rate futures market has attached a roughly 70 percent probability the Fed will lift rates at the December meeting

That pushed benchmark U.S. 10-year yields to a more than four-month high elevating the dollar against the yen, the currency pair most sensitive to moves in the U.S. government bond market. The greenback has risen in 10 of the last 11 sessions versus the Japanese currency.

“Recent data on jobs, manufacturing and services growth have shown compelling strength that could green light a U.S. rate hike by the end of the year,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

Speaking to reporters after a speech in Sydney, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he “could be fine” with the Fed raising rates in December, but he wanted to see how the economy and inflation progressed before deciding.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza