GBP/USD has resumed its downward slide on Monday. The pair has posted considerable losses and is trading at the 1.24 line in the North American session. On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to the week, as US markets are closed for Columbus Day. In the UK, the sole event on the schedule is British BRC Retail Sales Monitor.
The pound suffered a “flash crash” on Friday, as GBP/USD lost six percent of its value in less than two minutes at the start of the Asian session . There are various theories about the cause of the plunge, including algorithms and human error. The currency dropped below the 1.20 line before recovering to close the Friday session at 1.2380. It marked the end of a miserable week for the pound, which lost 500 points. Although recent British numbers have been better than expected, this has not improved market sentiment toward the pound. There are persistent concerns that the government may opt for a “hard Brexit”, which would see Britain adopt its own immigration rules but lose its unrestricted access to EU markets. This could lead to serious economic consequences for Britain and send the shaky pound further downwards.
The US released eagerly-awaited employment numbers for September on Friday, and the data was mixed. Nonfarm payrolls, one of the most closely watched indicators, rose slightly to 156 thousand. Although this was well short of the forecast of 171 thousand, the markets do not appear overly concerned, as other employment indicators were steady. Average Hourly Wages edged up to 0.2%, matching the forecast. The unemployment edged up to 5.0%, just above the forecast of 4.9%. As well, the labor force participation rate ticked higher. Unemployment claims sparkled last week, dropping to just 249 thousand, beating the estimate of 255 thousand. Unemployment claims have come in below the forecast for 10 straight weeks, pointing to a tight labor market. Jobless filings have been below 300,000 for 83 straight weeks, marking the longest streak since 1970. Overall, September employment numbers were decent and the likelihood of December rate has actually risen slightly since Friday, from 63 percent to 66 percent.
Monday (October 10)
- 19:01 British BRC Retail Sales Monitor
*All release times are EDT
* Key events are in bold
GBP/USD for Monday, October 10, 2016
GBP/USD October 10 at 11:20 EDT
Open: 1.2434 High: 1.2444 Low: 1.2353 Close: 1.2396
- GBP/USD has shown limited movement for most of the Monday session
- 1.2120 is providing support
- 1.2447 is a weak resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2120, 1.1954 and 1.1844
- Above: 1.2447, 1.2525 and 1.2612
- Current range: 1.2120 to 1.2447
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
GBP/USD ratio posted sharp gains in short positions after the pound recorded sharp losses on Friday. Currently, long positions still have a majority (57%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.