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EUR/USD – Euro Edges Lower, US Markets Closed for Holiday

EUR/USD has edged lower on Monday, as the pair trades at 1.1170. US markets are closed for Columbus Day, so there are no US releases to start off the week. In Europe, there are no major events on the schedule. Germany’s trade surplus jumped to EUR 22.2 billion, ahead of the forecast of EUR 19.3 billion. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence jumped to 8.5 points, beating the forecast of 6.2 points. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at ZEW Economic Sentiment reports out of the Eurozone and Germany, with both indicators expected to improve in the October release.

Eurozone numbers started off the week on a positive note. German trade balance and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence both recorded strong gains, and Italian Industrial Production was unexpectedly strong at 1.7%, marking its strongest gain in seven months. With the ZEW Economic Sentiment expected to show strong numbers, the euro could take advantage and post gains.

US employment numbers for September were mixed on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls, one of the most closely watched indicators, rose slightly to 156 thousand. Although this was well short of the forecast of 171 thousand, the markets do not appear overly concerned, as other employment indicators were steady. Average Hourly Wages edged up to 0.2%, matching the forecast. The unemployment edged up to 5.0%, just above the forecast of 4.9%. As well, the labor force participation rate ticked higher. Unemployment claims sparkled last week, dropping to just 249 thousand, beating the estimate of 255 thousand. Unemployment claims have come in below the forecast for 10 straight weeks, pointing to a tight labor market. Jobless filings have been below 300,000 for 83 straight weeks, marking the longest streak since 1970. Overall, September employment numbers were decent and the likelihood of a December rate has actually risen slightly since Friday, from 63 percent to 66 percent.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (October 10)

Tuesday (October 11)

*All release times are EDT

* Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, October 10, 2016

EUR/USD October 10 at 10:40 GMT

Open: 1.1194 High: 1.1200 Low: 1.1164 Close: 1.1169

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0957 1.1054 1.1150 1.1278 1.1376 1.1467

Further levels in both directions:

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio continues to show movement towards short positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [4]

Market Analyst at OANDA [5]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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