OPEC Agreement in Principle

OPEC Agreement in Principle 

The big news in markets this morning is that OPEC has agreed to a preliminary deal to cut production. After endless hours of discussion in Algeria, OPEC reached a consensus that a reduction in oil production is necessary.


Market share continues to be the contentious issue despite OPEC’s member countries agreeing on a production limit of 32.5mn to 33mn barrel per allocation.  A subcommittee will be formed to iron out the details, so market exuberance will likely be tempered until the November OPEC meeting.


Ultimately this move should provide a near-term floor on oil and should be a stabilizing factor, especially for downside assaults, as fundamental supply concerns continue to be the primary driver in oil prices. Predictably, the oil patch complex and commodity based currencies enjoyed the afternoon limelight.


The OPEC deal in principle plays favorably for US shale oil producers, who will ramp up production if prices move north of WTI US $50.00. In this brave new world of oil production, the only way for a long-lasting bounce would be for non-OPEC members follow suit.


Aussie Dollar

The Australian dollar had a +35 pip bounce in the wake of the OPEC preliminary agreement but was trading very productively this week nonetheless. In addition to the bounce in commodities, the AUDUSD is underpinned by a growing consensus that the RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, underscoring the current market view of the Aussie as a safe haven high yielder.


With the RBNZ signaling a rate cut may be in the offing, the Australian Dollar has turned into the G-10 market favorite carry, while both US political landscape unfolds and market expectations for a December Fed lift off strengthens.

Japanese Yen

Despite the favorable bounce in the risk sentiment post-OPEC decision, USDJPY pessimism remains high, and we are likely to see traders continue to sell into rallies. Despite the growing pessimism, the pair has remained relatively resilient as there is some debate among dealers that a move below ¥100 will increase the likelihood of intervention. This shift is up from a consensus of ¥95, as suspicions reign that the MOF may step up their game after the BOJ failed to ease at the last meeting.


The USDJPY is extremely vulnerable to any negative US economic data and remains very much exposed unless the market starts to buy into the Federal Reserve Board multiple rate hike mantras with forward guiding to a high degree of certainty for a December lift off. On the Fed speak front, a consensus is elusive with Kashkari and Evans continuing with dulcet dovish tones, while Mester takes a Hawkish tack.


While today’s oil price movement are supportive of USDJPY, it is unlikely to be a dominant force as the oil markets are still dealing with major supply concerns.



USDCNH activity picked up considerably yesterday as offshore funding pressure abates and a sense of finality over the SDR support erodes. But certainly seeing good two-way interest in the market the past 24 hours.


Short term support from coming from the OPEC agreement but the pair remains the regions underperformer. Oil should stay supportive short term but until a convincing break above  $ 50.00 per barrel the USDMYR will continue to be supported on dips.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Head of Trading APAC at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and currently based in Singapore as the Head of Trading Asia Pacific with OANDA. Stephen's market views focus on the movement of G-10 and ASEAN Currencies. His views appear in Bloomberg, CNBC.Reuters, New York Times WSJ and the Economist. His media appearances include Bloomberg TV & Radio, BBC International, Sky TV, Channel News Asia, ASTRO AWANI and BFM Malaysia. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Spot and Forward FX, Currency and Interest Rate Futures, Money Market Derivatives and Precious Metals. Before joining OANDA, he worked with organisations like Nat West, Chemical Bank, Garvin Guy Butler, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

Latest posts by Stephen Innes (see all)