Why This Number Is a Big Deal Thursday

ADP payroll data could have a little more clout Thursday after it foreshadowed last month’s disappointing employment report.

In addition to ADP, traders are also watching OPEC’s meeting in Vienna, which could have impact on oil for months to come, as well as comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi after the ECB meeting early Thursday.

The private sector ADP payroll report is not widely seen as a reliable indicator for the government’s jobs report, expected Friday, but last month it reported just 156,000 jobs. Two days later, April nonfarm payrolls came in at just 160,000, 40,000 shy of expectations. According to Thomson Reuters, 175,000 jobs are expected for May from ADP, while 162,000 nonfarm payrolls are expected in the government report Friday.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam