Societe Generale’s has Black Swan Chart of Global Risks

Risks to the world economy remain to the downside and include sharply weaker global growth and a sudden change to expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, Societe Generale warned on Tuesday.

The French bank also said there was still a 30 percent chance of an economic “hard landing” for China, in its quarterly economic outlook.

“The potential for policy errors in China is substantial, and all the more so since a new bubble appears to be building in the property market,” Societe Generale analysts, led by Patrick Legland and Michala Marcussen, said in the report.

“The authorities are clearly keen to start recognizing and tackling the mountain of non-performing loans. The approach will be one of trial and error, with the downside risks implied in the name.”

A sharper-than-expected deceleration in the world’s second-largest economy could reverberate around the world. SocGen termed it a “black swan” — a metaphor for surprise events that severely affect the world.

The bank forecasts China’s economy will grow by 6.5 percent in this year, in line with consensus estimates.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza