Fund Manager Says Historically June a Down Month

Uncertainty around the U.K.’s referendum on its EU membership and a possible rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve has left investors cautiously looking ahead towards the month of June.

Stocks entered the final trading day of May with solid gains across the U.S. and Europe for the month, supported by a 5 percent jump in the oil price. But analysts have warned that June is the worst month of the year for markets.

“Eight of the last ten Junes has been down,” Michael Browne, fund manager at Martin Currie told CNBC.

“It is the worst month of the year in the last decade, not by a little bit but by an absolute street. If you were just going to use that as a way of looking forward and that’s what you should do, just bet on a negative June, sell on the last day of May. It has worked at least eight out of the last ten times.”

Browne explained that the bottoming out of earnings in 2016 had occurred at an early stage of the year, which was very unusual. He added that earnings had ended pretty much flat in Europe for the last eight to nine years. However, he added that if the trend continued in 2016 then we may see a better June.

“Year-to-date over the last six months we have seen markets move really closely around corporate earnings. So November, December people realize that corporate earnings estimates are way above any reality that comes through.”

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza