USD/SGD has posted strong gains on Wednesday, as the pair trades at 1.3512 early in the North American session. In economic news, US retail sales and PPI reports missed their estimates. Later in the day, Singapore releases GDP for the first quarter. On Thursday, Singapore releases Retail Sales and the US publishes CPI.
It was a disappointing day for US releases. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.2%, but fell short of the forecast of 0.4%. Retail Sales surprised with a decline of 0.3%, shy of the estimate of a 0.1% gain. It marked the second straight drop for the indicator. Consumer spending represents the biggest part of the economy, so these figures could spell trouble at a time that the export sector remains soft due to weak global demand.  PPI, a key gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, continues to struggle, posting a third decline in four months. The index dipped 0.1%, well off the estimate of a 0.3% gain. Will we see some relief from CPI on Thursday? The Fed, which has sent out a decidedly dovish message about the US economy, has greatly lowered expectations about a rate hike in April, and if CPI disappoints, the likelihood of a June move decreases.
China is one of Singapore’s major trade partners, making the Singapore dollar sensitive to key Chinese indicators. The Sing lost ground on Wednesday, as the Chinese trade surplus narrowed for a second straight month. The indicator dropped to $195 billion, shy of the forecast of $203 billion. The weak figure points to continuing weakness in the world’s second largest economy. China releases first quarter GDP on Thursday, with the markets braced for the indicator to edge lower to 6.7%, down from 6.8% in the previous quarter. If the Chinese economy did slow down in Q1, we could see the Singapore dollar continue to lose ground.
Wednesday (April 13)
- 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%
- 8:30 US PPI. Estimate +0.3%. Actual -0.1%
- 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate +0.1%. Actual -0.3%
- 8:3o US Core PPI. Estimate +0.1%. Actual -0.1%
- 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.1%
- 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.9M
- 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
- 14:00 US Beige Book
- 20:00 Singapore GDP
Upcoming Key Events
Thursday (April 14)
- 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 270K
- 22:00 Chinese GDP. Estimate 6.7%
*Key events are in bold
*All release times are DST
USD/SGD for Wednesday, April 13, 2016
USD/SGD April 13 at 10:10 DST
Open: 1.3434 Low: 1.3422 High: 1.3528 Close: 1.3512
- USD/SGD has posted gains in the Asian and European sessions and continues to move higher in North American trade
- 1.3535 is a weak resistance line. It could break in the North American session
- 1.3401 is providing support
- Current range: 1.3401 to 1.3535
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3401, 1.3279 and 1.3145
- Above: 1.3535, 1.3639 and 1.3721
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