Moody’s Sees ‘Clear Downside Risks’ If UK Leaves EU

Ratings agency Moody’s said on Tuesday it saw “clear downside risks” if Britain votes to leave the European Union in a referendum in June, and repeated its warning that this would make the country’s debt more vulnerable to a downgrade.

Moody’s concerns come alongside a report from consultants Oxford Economics which estimated that Britain’s economy could be almost 4 percent smaller than otherwise if it curbed inward migration after leaving the bloc.

Prime Minister David Cameron wants Britons to endorse continued membership of the 28-nation bloc in a referendum in three months’ time, but both his Conservative Party and public opinion are deeply divided.

Moody’s currently rates British government debt one notch below triple-A with a stable outlook, but said voting to leave the EU could lead to a negative outlook.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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