Why the Fed Is so Tough to Call

Markets have zigzagged their way through the year so far, spooked first by fears the U.S. Federal Reserve would tighten too much, then assuaged by predictions it wouldn’t move rates at all.

Now, Fed forecasts run the gamut, a CNBC survey has found, begging the question: Why isn’t there a consensus?

For one, the market signals have become a moving target.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.