Morgan Stanley Expects HKD Peg to Remain But Hurt Growth

While Morgan Stanley expects the Hong Kong dollar’s 32-year-old peg to the greenback to be defended, there could be an adverse impact on growth, wages and inflation expectations. The economy is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent growth in 2016 from an estimated 2.4 percent in 2015.

As long as the dollar keeps rising and the peg is in place, the Hong Kong dollar will also rise against rivals, blunting Hong Kong’s competitiveness. Higher-cost products, coupled with slower growth, will pinch corporate profits, hurt investment, and lead to an adjustment in the labor market.

“If policy makers have to intervene in the currency markets to defend the peg, interest rates could remain elevated, weighing on asset prices and domestic demand,” Morgan Stanley says.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza