ECB Decision More Influential than the Fed for Stocks

Investors continue to focus on global central bankers, but it’s the European Central Bank not the Federal Reserve that’s really going to influence the markets, Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos said Wednesday.

The ECB on Thursday is expected to expand its quantitative easing program and cut its already negative deposit interest rate.

“I really don’t think any of us are prepared for what it means to have a negative 40- or 50- … basis-point deposit rate in a major currency,” Zervos told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Such a move would send the strong dollar even higher “and I think European stocks rally,” he said.

On Wednesday morning, the yield on German two-year bonds hit a record low of negative 0.432 percent.

The expected moves by the ECB would be in the opposite of direction of an expected Fed hike in U.S. rates at its Dec. 15-16 meeting.

“The [Fed] liftoff story to me is almost a done deal. It’s only a question of how they couch it in language,” said Zervos. He said Fed Chair Janet Yellen will likely stress that any tightening would be gradual.

Yellen is set to speak at the Economic Club of Washington at 12:25 p.m. ET Wednesday afternoon, and is scheduled to testify before Congress on Thursday morning.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza