USD/JPY is uneventful on Monday, with the pair trading slightly under the 123 level in the North American session. Trading is light, as the Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. In the US, manufacturing and housing numbers fell short of their estimates. Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.6 points, its lowest level since October 2013. Housing Starts dropped sharply to 5.36 million, compared to 5.55 million a month earlier. The estimate stood at 5.39 million. On Tuesday, we could see some movement from the pair, with several key events on the calendar. In Japan, the BOJ will release the minutes of last week’s policy meeting. In the US, there are two key major events – Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.
Last week’s Fed minutes did not confirm a December rate hike, but most analysts feel that the long-awaited move will indeed occur next month. Market expectations have risen to 66% that the Fed will make a move next month, and recent comments by Fed policymakers have hinted that a rate move is a strong possibility. At the past two policy meetings, the vote against a rate hike was 9-1, but clearly that will not be the outcome at the December meeting. With the US economy showing improvement and employment and consumer indicators pointing upwards, the markets appear prepared for a small hike of 0.25% or 0.50%, and there is a growing view that a modest move would not cause turbulence on the global markets. One remaining question mark in the rate move puzzle is that of inflation levels. Recent inflation readings have been weak, and the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is a key consideration in any decision to raise rates. The markets will get a look at key inflation indicators shortly before the critical Fed policy meeting on December 16.
- 14:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.0 points. Actual 52.6 points
- 15:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.39M. Actual 5.36M
Upcoming Key Events
Tuesday (Nov. 24)
- 23:50 BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 2.0%
- 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 99.3 points
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
USD/JPY for Monday, November 23, 2015
USD/JPY November 23 at 18:30 GMT
USD/JPY 122.86 H: 123.26 L: 122.90
- USD/JPY posted gains in the Asian session. After a flat European session, the pair has given up much of the earlier gains in the North American session.
- 123.74 is an immediate resistance line.
- 122.40 is providing weak support. 121.50 is stronger.
- Current range: 122.40 to 123.74
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 122.40, 121.50, 120.40 and 118.53
- Above: 123.74, 125.63 and 126.84
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
In the USD/JPY ratio, long positions retain a majority of positions (58%), which is indicative of trader bias towards the pair moving higher.