EURUSD – Trend Line Support Under Pressure Again

EURUSD has been under considerable pressure as of late, driven by the diverging monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed, both of whom are considering acting in December.

The result has been the pair falling from 1.15 to 1.09 in just a couple of weeks where it appears to have found some support from the ascending trend line – 13 March lows.


Since finding support here, the pair has experienced a minor correction but is once again attempting to break lower, a move that would bring May and July lows into consideration, around 1.08. This is a very significant support level for the pair and a break of it could prompt another considerable move lower.

As it stands, the trend line support is continuing to provide support for the pair, although there are signs that the bears haven’t given up yet. The most recent 4-hour candle is a quite bearish, albeit smaller, marabuzo candle and the current one is yet to break back through the marabuzo line.


Momentum also appears to be growing as the pair closes in on the trend line, which could not be said at the first time of asking.

It’s also notable that during the most recent rally, or correction, on Friday, the pair failed to move above Wednesday’s highs, a sign that the bears are in control. That said, this could continue to be the case during a consolidation as well, although in many cases, consolidation would also be bearish eventually.

As you can see from the OANDA orderbook, client open orders suggest 1.09 is a key level of interest and as it stands, buy orders slightly outnumber sell orders.

Open Orders

To get access to the OANDA orderbook and all of our other trading tools, visit OANDA Forex Labs.

N.B. There is a lot of US data being released and Federal Reserve policy makers speaking between now and Friday which could have a big impact on this pair. It’s worth monitoring the economic calendar so you know when these releases are due.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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