El-Erian Says U.S. at 30% of a Recession by 2017

Economist Mohamed El-Erian said Monday he puts the risk of a recession in the United States at 25 percent to 30 percent.

“The road we’re on is going to end. We cannot rely on central banks, and central banks cannot be the only game in town when it comes to policy,” the former Pimco co-CEO said in a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview. “By 2017, we’re going to tip only way or the other.”

El-Erian said the American economy will continue to heal on its own, but growth troubles in other parts of the world, such as China, are holding back the U.S. He pegs domestic growth at 2 percent to 2.5 percent.
The chief economic advisor to Germany’s Allianz, parent of Pimco, also said investors should get ready for more stock market volatility in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve and world central banks move in opposite directions.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza