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Gold – Flag Points to Bullish Continuation

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The long-term decline in Gold has been blamed on a number of factors; stronger dollar, prospect of Federal Reserve hiking interest rates and low inflation to name a few.

Over the last couple of weeks, the weakness in the dollar on the back of expectations that the Fed may be forced to delay the first rate hike has aided the rally in Gold.

Reuters Dollar Index

*US Dollar Index. Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

This has been followed by consolidation over the last few weeks, which has led to the formation of a flag, typically a trend continuation pattern.

Gold Daily

Early signs suggest this could be the case on this occasion with today’s test of the trend line support and prior resistance failing at the first attempt. The rebound off this level was very strong and could potentially be followed by a test of the trend line resistance.

Based on the size of the flag pole, a break could prompt a move towards the descending trend line which dates back to 22 January. Of course, this is dependent on a break occurring and the point of the breakout and is only a projection based on what can often occur with similar setups.

There are also a number of potential resistance levels above the flag, including last week’s high of $1,126.94, 7 November support at $1,131.50 and 17 March support at $1,142.73.

Gold 4hr

Alternatively, a break below the trend line support, which would also mean a break of previous resistance levels, would be a very bearish signal, with further support possibly being found around $1,100-$1,101.90 and $1,093.90.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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